Work has been driving me absolutely crazy and I have had limited time to do real analysis in the evenings. Generally speaking analysis has been rather terse and focused almost exclusively on my current trades. I value this work as it helps me to focus and keep my trades honest.
What happened today? IWM and SPY moved up. IWM is still bouncing along previous resistance that is now support. The bad part of today's trade in the IWM is that the support bounce did not have siginificant volume. We will see what happens. Expectation is that we are in a bullish trend so it should go/continue in that direction. We may still get something of an additional pullback. Break through the 63.60 level and I will start to add significantly to bearish trades.
The SPY moved up on better volume. While we still have strength in the SPY the differences in the current moves in the two symbols is of concern. We will likely get some additional sideways movement if this bullish trend is to continue in the overall market should the weaker action in the small-caps continue. A nice pullback or an extended amount of sideways movement will help keep the longer term trend bullish. The large volume in the SPY the last two days is more indicative of a sideways market in the short term.
My trades did much better today than they did yesterday but I also had to make some changes and they are noted below.
BULLISH:
CERN - This symbol is doing okay. Forming another bull flag. Breaking down from here and I will close.
CMTL - This trade has worked pretty well. I am closing though. Why? The stock has made a nice move up. The move up the last 3 days has been on steadily declining volume. With the mixed signals in the indices I am going to limit some of my risk by closing this trade for a 15-20% profit in 3 days on the option and about 3.5-4% on the stock.
DIA - The Diamonds trade, which is an unbalanced Iron Condor, is doing okay. The bearish leg of this trade is getting close to being in danger. The long side is doing well.
GGB - Back to support. Getting close to an exit if it shows weakness from here.
HPJ - This stock is doing well. Close below $8.80 and Iwill be looking to book profits.
HSP - This is a covered call. The covered call is still working. Earnings are about 3 weeks out so the sideways movement is working to the advantage of this trade. A significant close below $50 now and I will begin looking to exit.
JOYG - The trade that I am working here is a Feb Bull Put Spread. Just need a little bit more upward movement and the trade will be closed.
LTC - Bouncing again but is one of my weakest trades right now. Close below $27 will indicate the trade needs to be closed at this point. I much prefer small losses than full losses.
UUP - This appears to be forming a new base. We are sitting right at the $22.75 area indicated as a support area.
XRT - This was a covered call until today. I closed the short strike today though. This is forming a large ascending triangle. I am going to roll to the next month for another covered call. Between the dividend I received of $30 per 100 shares and this covered call I have better than $50 in additional monies in my pocket. I will sell another month on some additional strength.
TEVA - No change. It will be called away tomorrow or early Friday unless there is a big drop in the near future. This is not likely to happen.
BEARISH:
My bearish trades are getting slim again.
TAP - TAP just does not want to drop. I closed this trade today and my total loss including commissions are $20. Could I have held this longer. Sure. I don't like taking large losses. My psyche deals with small losses great, but when they start approaching my normal gains I get a little anxiety. They will still happen, but my greatest failure last year was taking losses bigger than I should have on spread trades because I waited too long to close.
XHB - The homebuilders showed a bit of strength today but did not violate my exit point. Still holding.