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Weekly Analysis - February 21, 2010

Sunday, February 21, 2010 9:37 PM Weekly Analysis spy iwm xhb xlf
I have been silent for a while.  Life takes its toll and sometimes limits our ability to do everything we are supposed to do.  I have been participating but only marginally.  This market is still not showing any real strength, but  continues to go a bit higher.  I am still net short the market and am looking for trades to supplement some of these net short positions.The IWM and SPY moved up but only marginally.  The IWM is getting close to the underside of the former highs.  This is in the 63.50 More...

Daily Analysis - February 10, 2010

Thursday, February 11, 2010 7:18 PM daily trade wrapup spy iwm dia rvbd
We finally got the bounce we were looking for. Unfortunately for me I messed up on my RVBD trade.  The accounts where I traded stock  rather than  a call spread got closed.    Very upset by my bad order entry.  This happens occasionally, sometimes for my benefit and sometimes against me. Volume today was still anemic.  Thinly traded markets  tend to be volatile.  Up days with low volume are not encouraging to this trader.  This  market is getting harder to trade so I will  be reducing my number More...

Daily Analysis - February 8, 2010

Monday, February 08, 2010 7:13 PM daily trade wrapup spy Trade Entry uup dia cat rvbd pets
Today was another down  day but is not convincing.  Volume dried up in comparison to the  selling  seen at the end of last week.  I  saw an interesting stock with an upward bias and opted to purchase it to take advantage of my perception of a potential upward push at least at the beginning of this week. I also closed my bearish DIA spread as well this week as there was more risk than benefit in leaving the trade open.The SPY today did close down and I expect to see some potential  upward push so More...

Weekly Analysis - February 7, 2010

Sunday, February 07, 2010 4:18 PM Weekly Analysis spy iwm uup dia qid xlf cat
We did not see real follow through on Friday to the downside and the price  action is providing indications that the current short term selling is over for  now.  This does not mean that it won't resume only that it may slow down for a time.  The dollar has had an extended move and needs to do something to consolidate those gains to have a long term future uptrend be in place.  I think we will get some upward momentum in the early part of the week but overall we should expect some more follow th More...

XLF Sector Update - February 5, 2010

Friday, February 05, 2010 7:03 AM Trade Entry xlf
The market has definitely changed direction on  us.  Here is the chart of the XLF.  As we discussed in the weekly analysis over the last couple of weeks XLF was a key inidicator to market health. We broke 14 in a bigh way yesterday.  Any bullishness in the general market should set us up to play the short side of the market.  One item to watch to see if  the blood-letting can be stopped is what happens in Europe in relation to the governments there that are essentially bankrupt - Greece, Spain, More...

Daily Analysis - February 4, 2010

Thursday, February 04, 2010 8:14 PM daily trade wrapup Closed Trades - Week spy iwm teva uup hsp dia Trade Exit qid
Today was very hard on the bulls.  Glad that I have been getting progressively more bearish in my portfolio.  I have had  changes in the bullish portfolio and I know that the market really appears to be changing trend.  The SPY and the IWM definitely had negative days and we have officially changed trends in the SPY as  we now have a lower low and  a  lower high.  105 is the next support with 102.50 poPtentially being closer.  Based on the Bear Flag pattern that completed  today 102.50 is much m More...

Daily Analysis - February 2, 2010

Tuesday, February 02, 2010 9:42 PM daily trade wrapup spy iwm dia qid
We got a nice bullish day today.  The SPY and the IWM both had very nice bullish moves today.  Volume was more pronounced today than yesterday in both exchange traded funds.  These moves have certainly helped our bullish portion of our  portfolio. A very strong day today in that regard.  The trend has not really changed yet, but sideways could still occur.  We still need to see some additional breakdown to fully identify a bear market.I still have the bearish call spread on the DIA right now tha More...

Daily Analysis - February 1, 2010

Tuesday, February 02, 2010 7:06 AM daily trade wrapup spy iwm xhb
The SPY and the IWM moved up as expected.  There were good moves but volume is not confirming this move.  We may see a continuation of the move today and this will give us a much better idea of the confirming strength.  Both indexes are sitting at support so the weekly analysis premise of a  break lower or break higher still apply.  No real change in the tone of the market.My trades did well today but most acted weak just like the bullishness in the market.  This may change course but tone is no More...

Weekly Analysis - January 31, 2009

Sunday, January 31, 2010 9:10 PM Weekly Analysis spy iwm uup dia Sector Analysis Month Review
We have all heard the adage that so goes January, so goes the rest of the year.  There are myriads of permutations of this phrase but the expectation is that if January is up, the remainder of the year will aslo be up, or vice-versa.  I have come to not put much stock in the adages because it says absolutely nothing of all of the movement that will occur in between.  We never go up or down in a straight line.As mentioned in Friday's wrap-up we do not have a definitive downtrending market yet.  W More...

Daily Analysis - January 29, 2010

Friday, January 29, 2010 6:00 PM daily trade wrapup spy iwm uup dia Trade Exit
Wow. What a down day.  My view now is much more bearish.  The SPY and the IWM are both down significantly today.  We should expect more of  the same in the future.  I am now forecasting a drop  to the 102.50 area in the SPY.  I am expecting a drop to the 57.50 area on the IWM.  A move up is being patiently awaited. I did make some changes to the portfolio today.  I was able to close the DIA Bull Put Spread near the highs of the day and I initiated a new Feb Bear Call Spread on the DIA 107/105.  More...
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